New grants for Evolution and Ecology researchers
2019-12-19
Researchers at the department have recieved grants for new exciting research projects.
A short description of some of the projects are found below.
Species Range Dynamics Under Climate Change: An Integrative Approach
Robert Muscarella
Forecasting the ecological consequences of climate change requires a stronger synthesis of information about the processes that govern species range dynamics. The aim of this project is to better understand range dynamics of tropical trees by synthesizing data on demographic rates, physiological traits, and current distributions. The project will focus on forests in Puerto Rico, and leverage long-term data from diverse forests across broad climate gradients.
The Genetic Architecture of Sexual Dimorphism
Elina Immonen
Sex differences are commonplace and often the greatest source of phenotypic variation within species. Their evolution is a puzzle, however, because although the sexes commonly experience divergent selection pressures, their independent response to selection is constrained by the largely shared genome. This project will investigate how sex differences in body size evolve by using laboratory evolution, quantitative genetic and genomic techniques, and seed beetles as the model system. By testing several theoretical predictions of what it takes to evolve sexual dimorphism, we hope to get a deeper understanding of how to resolve the conflict over shared genes and where in the genome the resolution lurks.
Climate change and trophic cascade effects on community assembly processes and ecosystem functioning in plankton
Silke Langenheder
The overall aim of the project is to investigate how priority effects, caused by differences in the arrival order of species during initial colonization of a habitat, influence spatial patterns in community composition. More specifically, we will investigate how changes in abiotic conditions resulting from climate change, such as increases in temperature, productivity and environmental fluctuations, interactively affect the strength of priority effects relative to other assembly processes and how that, in turn, influences ecosystem functioning. Further we will investigate if priority effects that occur at higher trophic levels cascade through food webs and cause differences in community composition and ecosystem functioning at lower trophic levels. To address these questions we will use micro- and mesocosms experiments with microbial plankton communities.
Mutation bias in adaptive evolution and the adaptive evolution of mutation bias
David Berger
Evolutionary theory typically considers the phenotypic effects of new mutations as independent of past selection, but this view has recently been challenged. If selection does not only discriminate among the phenotypes that mutation has created, but also influences which phenotypes that mutation initially creates, this would have fundamental implications for the relationship between mutation and its demographic consequences, as well as for the rate and repeatability of evolution. However, we know next to nothing about the conditions under which natural selection can shape mutational effects. This proposal aims to help fill this void by using three different insect models to explore if and how selection shapes the phenotypic penetrance of de novo mutations in life-history, morphology, gene expression and fitness over different evolutionary time frames. Additionally, we will use a comparative dataset on organisms across the tree of life to test the corollary prediction that de novo mutations should have stronger fitness effects in novel environments, where selection has not yet had the opportunity to buffer environmental and genetic stress. The ideas and experiments presented here go well beyond the current state-of-the-art and are aimed at showing how recently proposed challenges to the Modern Synthesis are in fact reconcilable with standard quantitative genetics theory.
Metagenomic time travel to study the evolution of antimicrobial resistance in microbiomes of wild Swedish mammals
Katerina Guschanski
Antimicrobial resistance is a major threat for human health worldwide and poses a significant financial burden in treatment costs. Using dental calculus, the calcified bacterial biofilm that forms on teeth of mammals, we will investigate how the levels of antimicrobial resistance and the diversity of antimicrobial resistance genes have changed through time in several wild mammals, such as bears and reindeer. With the help of museum collections, we will first determine the baseline of antimicrobial resistance in host-associated microbiomes before humans started mass-producing antibiotics in the 1940s. Progressing through time towards the presence, we will study the evolution of antimicrobial resistance in response to increased antibiotic production 1940s-1990s and the effectiveness of the national Strama plan (introduced in 1995) to curb antimicrobial resistance.
Symbiont protection in mutualisms and Symbiont protection - a novel ecological concept and map to drug discovery
Charlotte Jandér
Charlotte Jandér studies the ecology and evolution of mutualisms. Her research looks at how mutualisms avoid enemies from within, such as cheating partners that take the benefits of the interaction without paying the costs. Her recent funding from VR and Formas will extend this work to study enemies that are external to the mutualism: who are they, what are their fitness costs, and how do mutualisms protect themselves against these enemies? Fieldwork will initially focus on the mutualism between fig trees and their pollinating fig wasps, where fitness can easily be quantified.
The genomic repeatability of life history adaptation
Göran Arnqvist
Insight into the repeatability of adaptation represents a current challenge in evolutionary biology, because it requires a detailed understanding both of the presumed complex genetic architecture of adaptation and of the interplay between deterministic and contingent forces in evolution. Such an understanding is generally not in place. I will employ a unique set of replicated bi-directional experimental evolution lines of an insect, maintained for more than 300 generations. I will perform life history phenotyping, a major comprehensive next-generation sequencing effort and a quantitative genetic breeding design in order to assess the extent to which similar adaptive phenotypic evolutionary trajectories involve similar genetic trajectories. I will be able to determine the number of genes and gene networks that are involved in life history adaptation and will estimate repeatability at several different levels (i.e., phenotypes, networks, haplotypes, genes, transcripts and SNPs). Dedicated efforts will be made to determine the relative roles of coding and non-coding regions of the genome and to identify epistatic interactions that mediate life history adaptation. This project greatly extends previous studies of microbes and those of simper traits, and is beyond state-of-the-art by (1) aiming to understand the genomic repeatability of complex life history adaptations in a metazoan and (2) using a deep and exceptionally integrative methodological and inferential strategy.
Evolution of sex determination
Sophie Karrenberg
The evolution of separate sexes is of fundamental importance in biology. Sex determining mechanisms are highly variable and labile and sex chromosomes often degenerate; however, the underlying evolutionary mechanisms are unclear. Theoretical studies predict that sex chromosome evolution is driven by sex ratio selection and/or by different forms of genetic conflict, for example, between males and females or between cytoplasm and nucleus. Empirical evidence for these predictions is scarce, in part because the best-studied systems are animals with ancient sex chromosomes. This project investigates a plant family with separate sexes (Salicaeae, willows and poplars) where a high turnover of recently emerged sex chromosomes has been suggested and sex ratio bias is common. The project has three main objectives: (1) identify the mechanisms for sex determination and sex ratio bias, (2) analyze signs of degeneration in sex-associated region(s), and (3) investigate the evolutionary history and dynamics of genomic region(s) associated with sex-determination and sex-ratio bias. This comprehensive approach will allow us to gain novel insights into sex chromosome evolution and evolutionary processes at large.
Molecular mechanisms and evolutionary forces underlying recombination frequency in butterflies and Characterization of the genetic basis of migratory behavior in butterflies
Niclas Backström
Despite the central role of recombination in chromosome segregation accuracy, speciation processes, adaptive potential of populations and generation and maintenance of diversity, knowledge about recombination rate variation is limited to a handful of model organisms with little relevance to natural conditions. The aim of this project is therefore to quantify the mechanistic and evolutionary underpinnings and consequences of recombination rate variation. Butterflies are tractable organisms for this quest; they demonstrate high diversity in adaptations, behavior and speciation and have specific characteristics suitable for investigating causes and consequences of variation in recombination. High-density recombination maps will be developed for three closely related species of butterflies using a combination of cutting-edge techniques. The data will be used to characterize the main determinants and consequences of recombination rate variation. This is a timely topic since living organisms are currently facing one of the greatest environmental emergencies in history, exemplified by recent reports on massive declines and rapidly changing behavior in many butterflies. Characterization of mechanisms underlying recombination will lead to novel understanding about forces affecting genetic diversity and adaptive potential in natural populations.
Genomic, phenotypic and ecological divergence in a diverse clade of passerine birds
Per Alström
Understanding how new species are formed is one of the most fundamental questions in evolutionary biology. Speciation involves divergence in genetic and phenotypic traits, but the interplay between and relative roles of different factors for the evolution of reproductive isolation are poorly known. The purpose of this study is to address several outstanding issues in speciation research, relating to (1) genomic, phenotypic and ecological correlates of speciation and divergence; (2) identification of genomic regions under selection; and (3) evolution of reproductive isolation. We will study the ~80 species in the avian family Phylloscopidae (leaf warblers), for which a wealth of data on morphology, vocalisations, ecology and geographical distributions are available. Using whole genomes, we will ask: (i) whether divergent genomic regions have arisen in homologous or different parts of the genome across species; (ii) whether repeated phenotypic changes have a similar genetic basis; (iii) whether clades or species with novel phenotypic traits show distinct genetic signatures compared to their nearest relatives; (iv) whether genomic and phenotypic evolution is faster on islands than on continents; and (v) how divergence in genetic, phenotypic and ecological traits are linked to reproductive isolation and establishment of sympatry. By studying genomic, phenotypic and ecological diversity at all stages of divergence this project will provide unique insights into the process of speciation.
Nyheter från institutionen för ekologi och genetik
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Julia Tavares awarded scholarship from the Stiftelsen Konung Carl XVI Gustafs 50-årsfond för vetenskap, teknik och miljö
2023-05-03
Dr. Julia Tavares, postdoctoral researcher at Uppsala University, Institute for Ecology and Genetics, Plant Ecology and Evolution, has been awarded a scholarship from the Stiftelsen Konung Carl XVI Gustafs 50-årsfond för vetenskap, teknik och miljö for a project titled, “Physiological characteristics of trees in Amazonian wetlands and implications for climate change”.
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Conference: SCAPE 2022 (Scandinavian Association for Pollination Ecology)
2022-07-07
The conference SCAPE 2022 will take place at Gimo Herrgård the 13-16 October 2022.
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Conference: Evolution in Sweden 2023
2022-07-04
The conference Evolution in Sweden will take place at EBC the 10-12 January 2023.
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King honours Hans Ellegren and Lennart Elmevik
2022-06-28
King Carl XVI Gustaf has decided to award H.M. The King's Medal to Hans Ellegren, Professor of Evolutionary Biology, and Lennart Elmevik, Professor Emeritus of Scandinavian Languages.
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Major donation for research on ecology and genetics
2022-04-30
The entrepreneur Sverker Lerheden has resolved to donate SEK 100 million to promote basic ecology and genetics research. Through the newly formed Birgitta Sintring Scholarship Fund, scholarships will be awarded to “specially selected, top-performing researchers” associated with Uppsala University’s Department of Ecology and Genetics.
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Genomic effects of inbreeding on Scandinavian wolves
2022-02-10
For many years, researchers at Uppsala University have been exploring the genetic origins of the Scandinavian grey wolf population, which was founded by only three immigrating wolves. In their new study the scientists show that, after five generations of inbreeding, between 10 and 25 per cent of the original genetic variation has been eliminated.
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Is there time and energy to enhance quality?
2021-12-21
COLUMN. After many years of successful research combined with leadership positions at the university, professor Hans Ellergren will, at least temporary, leave his Alma Mater. Next year, he will take up the position as Secretary General of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.
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Hanars konkurrens om att få para sig viktig för genetiskt friska populationer
2021-10-11
Ett fåtal hanar räcker för att befrukta alla honor och de har därför liten betydelse för en populations tillväxt. Däremot är de viktiga för att rensa ut dåliga mutationer från populationen. Det här visar en ny studie från Uppsala universitet som ger fördjupad kunskap om vilka genetiska konsekvenser sexuell selektion kan ha på sikt. Resultaten är publicerade i den vetenskapliga tidskriften Evolution Letters.
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Hans Ellegren new Secretary General of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
2021-10-11
Hans Ellegren, Professor of Evolutionary Biology at Uppsala University, has been elected new Secretary General of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. He will succeed Professor Göran K. Hansson at the turn of the year 2021–2022. As Secretary General, he hopes to be able both to watch over the Academy’s historical heritage and ensure that the organisation is active here and now.
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Världens sjöar förlorar syre när planeten värms upp
2021-09-16
Syrehalterna i världens tempererade sjöar sjunker snabbt, till och med snabbare än i haven. Den slutsatsen drar forskare från bland annat Uppsala universitet i en ny vetenskaplig artikel i tidskriften Nature.
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How the major Swedish forest fire of 2014 affected the ecosystem
2021-09-16
Swedish researchers from institutions including Uppsala University have spent four years gathering data from the areas affected by the major forest fire of 2014. In their study of how the ecosystem as a whole has been altered, they could see that water quality in watercourses quickly returned to normal, while forested areas continued to lose carbon for many years after the fire.
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“We must take all territorial emissions from Sweden into account”
2021-09-16
Hello there! Lars Tranvik, Professor of Limnology at the Department of Ecology and Genetics, who recently penned an op-ed for the Swedish broadsheet Dagens Nyheter on the fact that greenhouse gas emissions from Swedish wetlands, lakes and water courses are omitted from Sweden’s climate reporting to the UN.
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Lars Tranvik in DN Debate: Greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden are greatly underestimated
2021-04-20
The net emissions of greenhouse gases from Sweden are much higher than society expects.
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Små sällsynta kattdjur får inte tillräckligt skydd
2021-04-20
Den indiska subkontinenten är en så kallad ”hotspot” för vilda kattdjur. En ny studie från Uppsala universitet visar nu att bara mellan 6 och 11 procent av de områden där tre arter sällsynta kattdjur har sin naturliga hemvist är skyddade. Bristen på kunskap om arterna har varit ett hinder för förståelsen för deras behov av reservat. Forskningen presenteras i tidskriften Scientific Reports.
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Svenska, finska och ryska vargar är nära släkt
2021-04-20
Skandinaviska vargar härstammar från Finland och Ryssland, och till skillnad mot många andra av Europas vargstammar saknar de tydlig inblandning av hund. Individer har också vandrat in och ut ur Skandinavien. Det här visar ny forskning från Uppsala universitet där hela arvsmassan hos över tvåhundra vargar kartlagts. Studien har publicerats i tidskriften Evolutionary Applications.
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Osynliga svampar avslöjade av sin arvsmassa
2021-04-20
Hur upptäcker man nya livsformer som inte går att se? Forskare vid Uppsala universitet har genom en ny metod, som går ut på att söka efter dna i jordprover, avslöjat existensen av två hittills okända, men mycket vanligt förekommande svamparter. De tros fylla en viktig funktion i ekosystemet, men exakt vilken roll de har är ännu inte klarlagt. Studien har publicerats i tidskriften IMA Fungus.
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Lär dig mer om kungsfiskaren med Per Alström
2020-07-02
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Dvärg- och sandlärkornas släktträd har fyra grenar
2020-06-15
Dvärg- och sandlärkorna bör betraktas som fyra olika arter istället för de två eller tre som är synsättet idag. Det föreslår en internationell forskargrupp, under ledning av forskare från Uppsala universitet, som har analyserat dna från 130 dvärglärkor och den närstående sandlärkan.
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Fler arter av talgoxar än tidigare känt
2020-06-15
Talgoxe av arten Parus major bokharensis i Xinjiang, Kina. Foto/bild: Per Alström Det kan finnas fler olika arter av talgoxar än vad man hittills har trott. I en ny studie med forskare från bland annat Uppsala universitet, har fem huvudgrupper av denna småfågel identifierats, till skillnad från de tre grupper som vetenskapen har räknat med fram till nu.
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Nordliga insekter är känsliga för klimatförändringar
2020-06-08
Resultaten tyder på att insekter kan komma att bli mer hotade av klimatförändringar än vad tidigare beräkningar visat. Foto/bild: Matton Tidigare forskning har antagit att insekter på nordliga breddgrader skulle klara ett varmare klimat bra, kanske till och med gynnas av det. Men det här är fel, visar forskare från Uppsala universitet, Lunds universitet och Universitetet i Oviedo, Spanien, i en ny studie. De tidigare modellerna har missat att ta hänsyn till att insekter som lever i nordliga klimat är inaktiva en stor del av året.
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Evolutionära processer beskrivs på nytt sätt
2020-06-02
I studien har forskarna studerat taigasädgåsen (Anser fabalis) och tundrasädgåsen (Anser serrirostris). De är så lika att det är svårt att veta vilken sorts gås du ser. Foto/bild: Matton Forskare från Uppsala universitet har studerat hela arvsmassan för två närbesläktade gäss, taigasädgåsen och tundrasädgåsen . De kan visa på en komplex historia där utvecklingslinjer gått kors och tvärs. Resultaten har stor betydelse för hur biologer studerar artbildning och beskriver evolutionära processer.
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New project to analyse novel coronavirus in wastewater
2020-05-26
Scientists hope that they can get information about the virus levels in a community by detecting it in wastewater, which is very useful for epidemiologists and authorities. Photograph: Matton The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has been detected in wastewater. Scientists from Uppsala University, KTH and SLU have received support from Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation and SciLifeLab to determine if wastewater treatment plants can effectively eliminate the virus from raw wastewater.
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CO2 emissions from dry inland waters globally underestimated
2020-05-06
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Antibiotika i blomma maskerade sig som naturprodukt
2020-04-06
Forskarna har studerat de kemiska föreningarna i en scilla från Madeira för att undersöka om den kan vara användbar som läkemedel. Foto/bild: Tim Entwisle Tidigare forskningsresultat har pekat på att en särskild typ av scilla från Madeira innehåller en kemisk förening som kan vara användbar som läkemedel. Men en ny studie från forskare vid Uppsala universitet visar att detta inte kan stämma. Växten hade förmodligen tagit upp antibiotika som hamnat i jorden via gödsling.
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Fågelfamiljen astrilders släktträd nu rekonstruerat
2020-03-10
Rödkindad fjärilsfink, Uraeginthus bengalus, Foto/bild: Per Alström Nu har forskare vid Göteborgs universitet och Uppsala universitet publicerat den hittills mest omfattande studien av släktträdet för fågelfamiljen astrilder. Gruppen omfattar några av de mest populära burfåglarna.
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Meet our scientists at Scifest!
2020-03-04
On March 5 - 7, Uppsala University and SLU hosts the science festival Scifest at Fyrishov. Many scientists from the Department of Organismal Biology will be there.
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Svampinfektion hindrar grodors rörlighet
2020-02-24
Gölgroda vid Upplandskusten i samband med forskning om hur grodornas rörlighet påverkas om de smittas av chytridsvampen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Foto/bild: Gustav Wikström Gölgrodor som smittats av av chytridsvampen "Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis" rör sig kortare sträckor än ickeinfekterade individer. Det visar en ny studie gjord av forskare vid Uppsala universitet och SLU. Forskarna har undersökt hur svampen påverkat rörligheten hos de rödlistade gölgrodorna längs upplandskusten.
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IEG-forskare berättar om isbildning i radio
2020-02-07
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Novel method for reading complete genomes from limited amounts of biological material
2020-01-28
An improved method for reading and interpreting genomes from organisms that are difficult to investigate has been developed at Uppsala University. A team of researchers, led by Dr Anna Rosling, has applied this method to decipher the genetic information of fungi present in the environment, which can be relevant, for example, for plant growth.
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A blog post about the proliferation of prinia species
2020-01-17
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Podcast with Anna Qvarnström
2019-12-20
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New grants for Evolution and Ecology researchers
2019-12-19
Researchers at the department have recieved grants for new exciting research projects.
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IEG scientists on list of the most cited and productive scientists in Sweden
2019-12-13
The Swedish magazine Fokus has ranked the most cited scientists in Sweden in a number of categories. The Deparment of Ecology and Genetics have several scientists in the top 100 i multiple categories, for instance is Professor Hans Ellegren in the top-10 in the category "Medicine and Life Science" and professor Lars Tranvik is in the top-10 in the category "Environmental science and green biology".
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Anna Qvarnström interviewed about a new forum for research infrastructure
2019-12-12
Relevant research infrastructure is crucial for being able to collect, process and access data. But advanced technology is expensive and then there is the question of who should bear the costs. “It’s an urgent issue," says Anna Qvarnström, Deputy Dean of Research for the Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology.
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New evolutionary insights into the early development of songbirds
2019-11-29
Zebrafinches. Photo: Wolfgang Forstmeier An international team led by Alexander Suh at Uppsala University has sequenced a chromosome in zebra finches called the germline-restricted chromosome (GRC). This chromosome is only found in germline cells, the cells that hold genetic information which is passed on to the next generation. The researchers found that the GRC is tens of millions of years old and plays a key role in songbird biology, having collected genes used for embryonic development.
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A genetic tug-of-war between the sexes begets variation
2019-11-19
In species with sexual reproduction, no two individuals are alike and scientists have long struggled to understand why there is so much genetic variation. In a new study published in Nature Ecology & Evolution, a team of researchers from the University of Uppsala in Sweden now show that a genetic tug-of-war between the sexes acts to maintain variation.
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Three PhD student positions and one post-doctoral position in biogeochemistry/microbial ecology
2019-10-25
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This year's von Hofsten lecture
2019-10-18
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Lyssna på forskarpodden med Per Alström
2019-10-17
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Kartläggning av Amazonas palmer är klar
2019-08-05
Palmer i Amazonas, från en 20-årigt arbete med kartläggning av palmer och växtplatser. Foto/bild: Henrik Balslev Under tjugo års tid har forskare vid bland annat Uppsala universitet undersökt palmer i Amazonas. Palmplantor på nästan 550 olika platser har undersökts. Det här är en viktig kartläggning för att förstå hur den biologiska mångfalden utvecklats i tropiska ekosystem, och vad som krävs för att bevara den. Arbetet presenteras i en ny studie som publiceras i tidskriften Ecology.
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Dagvattendammar kan gynna biologisk mångfald
2019-08-05
Tidig mosaiktrollslända (Brachytron pratense) som trivs vid anlagda dagvattendammar. Foto/bild: Frank Johansson Anlagda dagvattendammar i Uppsala stad har en oväntat hög biologisk mångfald. En studie som nu presenteras visar att hela 61 procent av alla trollsländearter som finns i Uppland, varav flera är relativt sällsynta i Sverige, också finns i dammarna. Det visar en undersökning utförd av forskare vid Uppsala universitet.
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Intervju med Hans Ellegren
2019-05-09
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”Våra växter och djur är ganska robusta”
2019-04-12
Jon Ågren har i sin egen forskning bland annat studerat majvivor på Alvaret, Öland. Foto/bild: Linda Koffmar Man kan inte vara bäst på allt. En växt kan synas och dofta mycket för att bli pollinerad, eller hålla en lägre profil för att slippa bli uppäten av växtätare. En ny forskningsstudie publicerad i Science bekräftar att växter är mästare på att anpassa sig. Snabbt kan det gå också.
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Paddor i lantliga områden drabbas oftare av sjukdomsalstrande parasitsvamp
2019-04-12
Studien utfördes kring Stockholm och Uppsala, där det finns många dammar med paddor i både urbana och lantliga områden. Foto: Simon Kärvemo Paddor i lantliga miljöer drabbas oftare av parasitsvampen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis än paddor i mer urbana miljöer. Det visar en ny studie som forskare vid Uppsala universitet och SLU publicerat i den vetenskapliga tidskriften Diseases of Aquatic Organisms. Forskarna visar också att paddor som delar damm med åkergrodor löper ökad risk att drabbas av svampinfektion.
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Origin of Scandinavian wolves clarified
2019-03-29
There are no signs that hybrids of dog and wolf have contributed to the Scandinavian wolf population – a matter that has been discussed, especially in Norway. These wolves appear to have originated from the Nordic region or adjacent parts of Northern Europe, new genetic research from Uppsala University shows.
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Lars Tranvik chosen to be Wallenberg Scholar
2019-03-25
Professor Lars Tranvik is one of 22 chosen scientists to be a 2019 Wallenberg Scholar. It entails a five-year grant of 18 million crowns to conduct free research.
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Meet IEG at Scifest!
2019-03-07
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Kartläggning av järvens arvsmassa visar på låg genetisk variation
2019-02-14
DNA från 11 svenska och norska järvar analyserades och forskarna kunde se att variationen i DNA hos järvarna var mycket låg. Genetiska analyser har länge varit en viktig del av övervakningen av skandinaviska rovdjur. Forskare vid institutionen för ekologi och genetik har kartlagt hela arvsmassan hos järv och visat att den skandinaviska stammen har låg grad av genetisk variation. Variationen var på liknande låga nivå som vissa kraftigt hotade arter. Forskarna kunde också visa att storleken på populationen haft en nedåtgående trend under mycket lång tid.
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Postdoctoral researcher position in Plant Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics
2019-02-05
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Global uppvärmning kan göra tusentals svenska sjöar isfria om vintern
2019-01-31
Foto/bild: Gesa Weyhenmeyer Ny forskning visar att ungefär 35 300 sjöar på norra halvklotet skulle bli isfria hela året om den globala medeltemperaturen ökar med 2 grader. I Sverige blir tusentals sjöar helt isfria om uppvärmningen når över 3 grader. Forskare från bland annat Uppsala universitet har arbetat med studien, som nu presenteras i tidskriften Nature Climate Change.